We use the near real-time surface current (SC) output from the diagnostic model
to monitor the evolution of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal
in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The SC anomaly variations, with the seasonal climatology
removed, have a very strong ENSO signal as seen in their principal empirical orthogonal
function (EOF) and its comparison with the EOF of the sea surface temperature
anomaly (SST). This figure portrays the first EOF mode of SC and SST anomalies
for the past decade extending through the latest 10-day period. The amplitude
time series (top panel) are computed by fitting the data sets to 10-year base
period eigen vectors (1993-2002) The amplitudes are then normalized by their respective
standard deviations. The bottom panel shows the corresponding EOF maps, scaled
accordingly. The El Niño signal can be seen as periods of positive excursions
(> 1 Std. Dev.) of the amplitude time series.
Please contact John Gunn with questions
or suggestions.
